One of our goals here at NeutralFan is to advance football statistics. Our long term project will include the following. Any comments or additions let us know. We will release data and papers on each area as soon as we finish them.
a) QB: Neutralized Passing (AY) + Neutralized Running
b) RB: Neutralized Running + Neutralized catching + YAC+ + Blocking+
c) WR: Neutralized catching + YAC+
d) TE: Neutralized catching + YAC+ + Blocking+
e) OL: Neutralized OFF Efficiency = Pass OFF+ + Rush OFF+ + Blocking+
a) LBs: Tackle Factor + Intimidation Factor
b) DBs: Shutdown Factor + Deflection Factor + Feast or Famine factor
c) DL: Defensive efficiency = OPP Pass OFF+ + OPP Rush OFF+
3) Special Teams
a)K: Kicking+ + JaniBoot
b) P: Coffin Ability + Neutralized Return
c) KR/PR: Neutralized Return diagram
a) WPA/EPA decisions
Neutralized Passing (AY): Here we will take a neutralized pass spectrum, and assume QB completion rate at league average Air Yards.
Neutralized Running: Here we take a league average play call, and use the RBs YPC for each type of run Left outside, Left, Middle, Right, Right Outside.
Neutralized Receiving: Take League Average throw patterns, allocate throws to receiver profile on team (aka % of short passes to the right he gets) or assume his positions % of targets (aka a WR1 gets x% of throws area Y.)
YAC+: Ability to extend YAC after catch compared to league average.
Blocking+: Ability above/below league average to block.
Rush OFF+: Ability above/below league average to have a run offense.
Pass OFF+: Ability above/below league average to have a pass offense.
Tackle Factor: Taken from Brian Burke advancenflstats.com Ability above/below league average to make tackles. [Note total product of defense Tackle Factor is 1.]
Tackle Factor+: Tackle Factor when adjusted to defense’s ability vs. league average.
Intimidation Factor: Measurement of opposing offenses avoiding to throw the ball in this player’s area. [Note total product of team IF should be 1.]
Shutdown Factor: Measurement of opposing offenses avoiding to throw the ball in this player’s area.
Deflection Factor: DBs ability to defend the ball thrown in their area. [Will use defl%]
Feast or Famine: DBs ability to get and interception minus his ability to fail to intercept the ball and have it go for a gain.
Kicking+: Points scored/FG% for a kicker if he kicks from league average distribution.
JaniBoot: a kicker’s power behind his kicks. (How far can he kick the ball with respect to league average)
Coffin Ability: The ability for the kicker to aim/place his kicks especially in coffin corners.
Neutralized Return: Using league average return rate to get punters neutralized net yards.